Mark Carney’s Davos speech, delivered January 20, at the annual World Economic Forum, offered a clear-eyed assessment of a global order under stress and a foreign policy path that no longer relies on old assumptions. His central premise is blunt: “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” That distinction matters. Countries can either confront reality or continue acting as if the old system still works. Carney argues that Canada has relied for decades on a “rules-based international order,” even while knowing that powerful countries often bent or ignored those rules to serve their own interests. “We placed the sign in the window,” Carney says, invoking Václav Havel’s story of a shopkeeper who displays a political slogan he doesn’t believe in, simply to avoid trouble. Carney uses this as a metaphor for Canada’s long-standing participation in a global system that it knew was flawed, but went along with to maintain stability and avoid conflict.
For decades, Canada benefited from institutions like NATO and the WTO, even while understanding that the rules were enforced unevenly, often bent to serve the interests of the most powerful states. But the protections those institutions once offered are no longer reliable. Military alliances are strained, trade rules are routinely bypassed, and international law is increasingly ignored when inconvenient to major powers. This pattern isn’t limited to countries like China and Russia; it includes the United States as well.
The speech dismantles the comforting fiction that Canada can rely on alliances, geography, and institutional norms to guarantee prosperity and security. Carney calls for middle powers to stop performing as if the system still functions as advertised. “You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” That line lands heavily in an era where trade, finance, and technology have become tools of geopolitical coercion.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada proceeds with a trade deal with China, following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing and the announcement of new tariff-reduction agreements. The threat reflects a broader pattern of economic coercion and suggests that U.S. leaders view Canadian sovereignty as conditional on American approval. This comes at a time when Ottawa is actively working to reduce its reliance on the U.S. by expanding trade with other partners. Carney has recently visited Qatar and several European countries and is scheduled to travel to Australia and India, all part of a broader effort to diversify Canada’s economic relationships and strengthen its strategic autonomy in a volatile global landscape.
Carney proposes a strategy built on diversification, autonomy, and pragmatic coalition-building. His advocacy for “variable geometry,” cooperation based on shared interests, not just shared history, suggests a more flexible, realistic approach to diplomacy. Canada’s agreements with Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and new defence initiatives reflect this shift.
Carney’s vision calls for more than institutional tweaks. It requires Canada to align its economic policy, defence commitments, and international engagement with the reality of diminished multilateralism. “Nostalgia is not a strategy,” he warns. If Canada is serious about taking the sign out of the window, it must follow words with action. The time for action is now.
Donald Trump’s recent comments that Canada should be “grateful” to the United States, claiming it “lives because of” its southern neighbour, have sparked new concerns about how Washington views its northern ally. Along with his renewed focus on Greenland, and actions in Venezuela, has only added to Canadian anxieties about sovereignty. In response, voices like Prime Minister Mark Carney are calling for a “third way” in foreign policy — reducing reliance on the U.S. by building broader, strategic global partnerships that reflect Canada’s own values and interests.
The launch of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace marked a symbolic rupture, introduced at Davos as a proposed mechanism for resolving global conflicts. Trump invited dozens of countries to join, attaching a $1 billion price tag for permanent membership-a move widely criticized as transactional and exclusionary. He also announced that he would serve as the first chair of the board, and under its draft structure, he could hold that position indefinitely, with significant control over membership and governance. Many key Western allies, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden, publicly declined or expressed serious reservations about the board’s structure and its implications for established institutions like the United Nations. In contrast, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Hungary have agreed to participate under the U.S.-led framework. Shortly after Carney’s speech, Trump formally withdrew Canada’s invitation.
This erosion of international norms is mirrored by troubling developments inside the United States itself. The recent killing of Renée Nicole Good in Minneapolis has underscored just how far U.S. enforcement practices have strayed from normal expectations of public safety and due process. Video and eyewitness accounts show Good, a 37-year-old mother of three, turning her vehicle to leave the scene when a federal ICE agent fired three shots, killing her as she tried to drive away. Her death, ruled a homicide by the local medical examiner, has sparked protests and outrage across the country. Now, ICU nurse Alex Pretti was fatally shot by a federal agent while trying to help a woman who had been pushed down by an agent during a protest. These incidents have unfolded amid competing official narratives about what happened, prompting the reminder of George Orwell’s warning: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” What’s happening next door is not normal, and Canadians should be shocked and dismayed.
In addition, recent ICE-related activity near Akwesasne on the U.S. side of the border has raised serious concerns. The Mohawk Council of Akwesasne has acknowledged community fears following reports that St. Lawrence County is moving forward with a memorandum of agreement with ICE, and local police are coordinating with U.S. agencies to address these developments. Canadians can’t control Washington’s behaviour, but we can choose how we respond. That means keeping our elbows up, buying Canadian, reducing reliance on U.S. supply chains, and thinking twice before crossing the border. What’s happening in the United States is alarming, but we must hold our resolve. The international rules-based order established after the Second World War has collapsed. So this is no longer just about resisting tariffs or rhetoric — it’s about defending Canada’s autonomy, asserting our place in the world, and refusing to bend to a revived vision of Manifest Destiny.
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