JASON SETNYK
Cornwall City Council endorsed the Growth Analysis and Land Needs Assessment study, following a presentation from Watson & Associates outlining the long-range plan to guide growth and planning decisions through 2056.
Ryan Windle, Director of Development and Building Services, said the report “goes back a couple of years” and had been refreshed before coming to council. He said it examines “housing, population, employment forecasts and trends” and identifies land needs as Cornwall plans for future growth.
Watson & Associates director Jamie Cook told council the updated study reflects significant changes in policy and economic conditions since the City’s last review. “We’ve had considerable ongoing fluctuations and volatility in the macroeconomic environment as well as the regional housing market that are impacting how we’re growing,” Cook said.
Cornwall is expected to continue growing at a faster pace than in previous decades, largely driven by migration. Cook pointed to “significant outward pressure largely from the city of Ottawa, and to a lesser extent the greater Montreal area,” combined with the city’s relative housing affordability and strategic location along Highway 401.
Cornwall’s population is projected to reach approximately 59,400 by 2056, an increase of about 9,600 residents from 2021 levels. Employment is also expected to expand, with forecasts suggesting the city could add roughly 8,200 jobs over the same period. To accommodate this growth, the report identifies significant land requirements. Cornwall is projected to face a shortfall of about 81 hectares of designated urban residential land and a smaller deficit of 19 hectares of employment land, while maintaining a surplus of roughly 20 hectares of commercial land.
The study also highlights a continued shift in housing demand toward higher-density options. While low-density homes still dominate the current housing stock, future development is expected to include a broader mix of housing types to address affordability and demographic changes, including an aging population.
Cook emphasized that these projections are shaped by evolving migration patterns and economic conditions. “It’s really a lot about migration, almost all about migration,” he said, noting increases in both interprovincial and international movement into the region in recent years.
Cook told council the updated study replaces earlier work prepared in 2014 for the 2018 Official Plan. “Why are we seeing more growth in Cornwall than we were experiencing in the previous update?” he said, pointing to outward pressure from Ottawa, Montreal and the Greater Golden Horseshoe, housing affordability, immigration trends, employment opportunities and Cornwall’s location along Highway 401.
During questions, Councillor Fred Ngoundjo inquired how Cornwall should prepare for projected job growth. “What is the best advice that you can give us to be proactive?” he asked. Cook said the city should understand how much serviced, market-ready employment land is available, while also considering labour force readiness and education. “Education definitely would be an important aspect,” he said.
Councillor Carilyne Hébert said the report shows the need for coordinated planning. “It really reinforces just how important that strategic plan would be,” she said, referring to an overdue economic development strategy. She also urged future councils to consider a community development strategy, saying Cornwall should ensure it is “not just growing, but growing well.”
CAO Tim Mills said the matter could be reviewed with senior staff and treasury as part of future budget discussions.
Councillor Claude McIntosh asked whether artificial intelligence was considered in the employment forecast. Cook said AI could disrupt job growth by sector while also creating efficiencies. McIntosh also raised concerns about health care capacity as Cornwall and surrounding communities grow. “That’s going to be our big challenge, I think, is healthcare,” he said.
Councillor Sarah Good said she was encouraged by the projections. “We are moving in a trend that I think we’ve all been anticipating for many, many years,” she said. She asked about mixed-use development, missing-middle housing and eco-business zones. Cook said Cornwall should plan for a broader range of housing, including townhomes, stacked townhomes, rentals, condos, and live-work units. Councillor Denis Sabourin said the report felt both “very progressive” and “very cautionary.” He asked whether Cornwall should “hurry up and slow down” while deciding how to manage growth. Cook said the forecast is ambitious, but not a cap. “You have that ability to course correct,” he said.
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